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NEW QUESTION # 78
What isthe risk horizon period used for credit risk as generally used for economic capital calculations and as required by regulation?
- A. 1 year
- B. 10 days
- C. 1-day
- D. 10 years
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
The credit risk horizon for credit VaR is generally one year.Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 79
Which of the following are valid approaches to calculating potential future exposure (PFE) forcounterparty risk:
I. Add a percentage of the notional to the mark-to-market value
II. Monte Carlo simulation
III. Maximum Likelihood Estimation
IV. Parametric Estimation
- A. I, III and IV
- B. All of the able
- C. I and II
- D. III and IV
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
When a derivative position is entered into, its mark-to-market value is generally close to zero (though the notional may be high). With the passage of time, the derivative's value fluctuates in an unpredictable way, creating a counterparty exposure that may be difficult to estimate and risk manage. Counterparty risk in such cases is estimated based on Potential Future Exposure, which may be calculated using either:
a) Take the mark-to-market at present, and add a certain percentage of the notional, or b) Perform a Monte Carlo simulation, capturing the stochastic nature of the PFE.
Therefore I and II are valid choices. MLE and parametric estimation are not methods for calculating PFE.
NEW QUESTION # 80
Under the KMV Moody's approach to credit risk measurement, which of the following expressions describes the expected 'default point' value of assets at which the firm may be expected to default?
- A. Long term debt + 0.5* Short term debt
- B. Short term debt + 0.5* Long term debt
- C. 2* Short term debt + Long term debt
- D. Short term debt+ Long term debt
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
A situation where a firm has more liabilities than assets does not necessarily implydefault, so long as the firm is able to pay its obligations when they come due. Therefore, short term debts have a greater bearing on a firm's default than longer term debt. However, this is not to say that merely having enough to pay off the short term debts (ie debts due within one year) is enough to avoid default. Over time, the long term debt will also be turning to short term debt, and it may not be possible for the firm to roll over its liabilities without lenders considering the long term debt. The KMV approach considers the entire short term debt and half of the long term debt as the critical value of assets below which default will be triggered. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 81
Which of the following is true for the actuarial approach to credit risk modeling (CreditRisk+):
- A. Default correlations between obligors are accounted for using a multivariate normal model
- B. The number ofdefaults is modeled using a binomial distribution where the number of defaults are considered discrete events
- C. The approach considers only default risk, and ignores the risk to portfolio value from credit downgrades
- D. The approach is based upon historical rating transition matrices
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
The actuarial model considers defaults to follow a Poisson distribution with a given mean per period, and these are binary in nature, ie a default happens or it does not happen. The model does not consider the loss of value from credit downgrades, and focuses only on defaults. The model also does not consider default correlations between obligors. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
The other choices are not true statements that would apply tothe actuarial approach.
NEW QUESTION # 82
Under the standardized approach to calculating operational risk capital, how many business lines are a bank's activities divided into per Basel II?
- A. 0
- B. 1
- C. 2
- D. 3
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
In the Standardized Approach, banks' activities are divided into eight business lines: corporate finance, trading
& sales, retail banking, commercial banking, payment & settlement, agency services, asset management, and retail brokerage. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 83
Which of the following statements are true:
I.Top down approaches help focus management attention on the frequency and severity of loss events, while bottom up approaches do not.
II. Top down approaches rely upon high level data while bottom up approaches need firm specific risk data to estimate risk.
III. Scenario analysis can help capture both qualitative and quantitative dimensions of operational risk.
- A. II and III
- B. II only
- C. I only
- D. III only
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Top down approaches do not consider event frequency and severity, on the otherhand they focus on high level available data such as total capital, income volatility, peer group information on risk capital etc. Bottom up approaches focus on severity and frequency distributions for events. Statement I is therefore not correct.
Top downapproaches do indeed rely upon high level aggregate data and tend to infer operational risk capital requirements from these. Bottom up approaches look at more detailed firm specific information. Statement II is correct.
Scenario analysis requires estimating losses from risk scenarios, and allows incorporating the judgment and views of managers in addition to any data that might be available from internal or external loss databases.
Statement III is correct. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 84
The sum of the stand alone economic capital of all the business units of a bank is:
- A. less than the economic capital for the firm as a whole
- B. unrelated to the economic capital for the firm as a whole
- C. more than the economic capital for the firm as a whole
- D. equalto the economic capital for the firm as a whole
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Economic capital is sub-additive, ie, because of the correlation being less than perfect between the risks of thedifferent business units, the total economic capital for the firm will be less than the sum of the EC for the individual business units. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
In practice, correlations are difficult to estimate reliably, and banks often use estimates and corroborate their capital calculations with reference to a number of data points.
NEW QUESTION # 85
Which of the following statements are true:
I. Capital adequacy implies the ability of a firm to remain a going concern II. Regulatory capital and economic capital are identical as they target the same objectives III. The role of economic capital is to provide a buffer against expected losses IV. Conservative estimates of economic capital are based upon a confidence level of 100%
- A. I, III and IV
- B. I
- C. III
- D. I and III
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Statement I is true - capital adequacy indeed is a reference to the ability of the firm to stay a 'going concern'.
(Going concern is an accounting term that means the ability of the firm to continue in business without the stress of liquidation.) Statement II is not true because even though the stated objective of regulatory capital requirements is similar to the purposes for which economic capital is calculated, regulatory capital calculations are based upon a large number of ad-hoc estimates and parameters that are 'hard-coded' into regulation, while economic capital is generally calculated for internal purposes and uses an institution's own estimates and models. They are rarely identical.
Statement II is not true as the purpose of economic capital is to provide a buffer against unexpected losses.
Expected losses are covered by the P&L (or credit reserves), and not capital.
Statement IV is incorrect as even though economic capital may be calculated at very high confidence levels, that is never 100% which would require running a 'risk-free' business, which would mean there are no profits either. The level of confidence is set at a level which is an acceptable balance between the interests of the equity providers and the debt holders.
NEW QUESTION # 86
A corporate bond has a cumulative probability of default equal to 20% in the first year, and 45% in the second year. What is the monthly marginal probability of default for the bond in the second year, conditional on there beingno default in the first year?
- A. 31.25%
- B. 3.07%
- C. 2.60%
- D. 15.00%
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Note that marginal probabilities of default are the probabilities for default for a given period, conditional on survival till the end of the previous period. Cumulative probabilities of default are probabilities of default by a point in time, regardless of when the default occurs. If the marginal probabilities of default for periods 1, 2... n are p1, p2...pn, then cumulative probability of default can be calculated as Cn = 1 - (1 - p1)(1-p2)...(1-pn).
For this question, we can calculate the marginal probability of default for year 2 by solving the equation [1 - (1
- 20%)(1 - P2) = 45%] for P2. Solving, we get the marginal probability of default during year 2 as 31.25%.
Since this is the annual marginal probability of default, we will need to convert it to a monthly number, which we can do by solving the following equation where M1 is the monthly marginal probability of default.
1 - 31.25% = (1 - M1)^12, implying M1 = 3.07%
NEW QUESTION # 87
Which of the following statements is true:
I. Confidence levels for economic capital calculations are driven by desired credit ratings II. Loss distributions for operational risk are affected more by theseverity distribution than the frequency distribution III. The Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) referred to in the Basel II standard is a type of a Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) IV. The loss distribution for operational risk under the LDA (Loss Distribution Approach) is estimated by separately estimating the frequency and severity distributions.
- A. I, III and IV
- B. III and IV
- C. I and II
- D. I, II and IV
Answer: D
Explanation:
Explanation
Statement I is correct. Economic capital is the capital available to absorbunexpected losses, and credit ratings are also based upon a certain probability of default. Economic capital is often calculated at a level equal to the confidence required for the desired credit rating. For example, if the probability of default for a AArating is
0.02%, then economic capital maintained at a 99.98% would allow for such a rating. Economic capital set at a
99.8% level can be thought of as the level of losses that would not be exceeded with a 99.8% probability.
Loss distributions are the product of the severity and frequency distributions, each of which are estimated separately. The total loss distribution is affected far more by the severity distribution than by the frequency distribution, therefore statement II is correct.
The Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) is one of the ways in which the requirements of the AMA can be satisfied, and not the other way round. Therefore statement III is incorrect.
Statement IV is correct as the total loss distribution is estimated using separate estimatesof loss frequency and distributions.
NEW QUESTION # 88
Concentration risk in a creditportfolio arises due to:
- A. A low degree of correlation between the default probabilities of the credit securities in the portfolio
- B. A high degree of correlation between the default probabilities of the credit securities in the portfolio
- C. Issuers of the securities in the portfolio being located in the same country
- D. Independence of individual default losses for the assets in the portfolio
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
Concentration risk in a credit portfolio arises due to a high degree of correlation betweenthe default probabilities of the issuers of securities in the portfolio. For example, the fortunes of the issuers in the same industry may be highly correlated, and an investor exposed to multiple such borrowers may face 'concentration risk'.
A low degreeof correlation, or independence of individual defaults in the portfolio actually reduces or even eliminates concentration risk.
The fact that issuers are from the same country may not necessarily give rise to concentration risk - for example, a bank withall US based borrowers in different industries or with different retail exposure types may not face practically any concentration risk. What really matters is the default correlations between the borrowers, for example a lender exposed to cement producersacross the globe may face a high degree of concentration risk.
NEW QUESTION # 89
Which of the following distributions is generally not used for frequency modeling for operational risk
- A. Poisson
- B. Gamma
- C. Binomial
- D. Negative binomial
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
Frequency modeling is performed using discrete distributions that have a positive integer as a resultant - this allows for the number of events per period of time to be modeled. Of thedistributions listed above, Poisson, negative binomial and binomial can be used for modeling frequency distributions. The Poisson and negative binomial distributions are encountered the most in practice.
The gamma distribution is a continuous distributionand cannot be used for frequency modeling.
NEW QUESTION # 90
What ensures that firms are not able to selectively default on some obligations without being considered in default on the others?
- A. The bankruptcy code
- B. Cross-default clauses in debt covenants
- C. Exchange listing requirements
- D. Chapter 11 regulations
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
It is the cross-default clauses in debt agreements that generally provide that a default on one obligation is considered a credit event applying to all debts of theobligor, and therefore we are able to deal with credit risk at the borrower level, and not at the level of the individual security. It also helps avoid situations where borrowers can selectively default on some obligations while continuing to service others. Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer. The other choices are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION # 91
A zero coupon corporate bond maturing in an year has a probability of default of 5% and yields 12%. The recovery rate is zero. What is the risk free rate?
- A. 5.26%
- B. 5.00%
- C. 6.40%
- D. 7.00%
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
The probability of default would make the expected value of the future cash flows from both the corporate bond and the risk free bond identical. If p be the probability of default, the cash flows from the risky corporate bond would be
= (cash flows in the event of default x probability of default) + (cash flows without default x (1 - probability of default))
=> 5%*0 + (1 - 5%)*(1 + 12%) = (1 + Rf).
therefore Rf = 6.4%
(In reality investors would demand a 'credit risk premium' over and above the expected default loss rate. They are unlikely to be happy with just being compensated with exactly the expected default loss rate plus the risk-fre rate because the expected default loss rate itself is uncertain. They would demand some premium over and above what the default rate alone might mathematically imply above the risk free rate. In this question, this credit risk premium is ignored.)
NEW QUESTION # 92
There are two bonds in a portfolio, each with a marketvalue of $50m. The probability of default of the two bonds over a one year horizon are 0.03 and 0.08 respectively. If the default correlation is zero, what is the one year expected loss on this portfolio?
- A. $1.38m
- B. $5.26m
- C. $5.5m
- D. $11m
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation
The probabilities of default of the two bonds are independent (as indicated by a zero default correlation). The various possible states of the portfolio are as follows:
First bond defaults, and the second does not: Probability * Loss = 0.03*0.92* $50m = $1.38m Second bond defaults, and the first does not: Probability * Loss = 0.97*0.08 * $50m = $3.88m Both bonds default: Probability * Loss = 0.03*0.08 * $100m = $0.24m Thus total expected loss on this portfolio = $5.5m. Since recovery rates are not provided, those should be assumed to be zero.
There is an easier way to solve this as well: default correlation does not affect expected losses, but their volatility. You can calculate the expected losses of the two bonds and add them up, ie, $50m*0.03+ $50m
*0.08 = $5.5m
NEW QUESTION # 93
If the full notional value of a debt portfolio is $100m, its expected value in a year is $85m, and the worst value of the portfolio in one year's time at 99% confidence level is $60m, then what is the credit VaR?
- A. $25m
- B. $40m
- C. $15m
- D. $60m
Answer: A
Explanation:
Explanation
Credit VaR is the difference between the expected value of the portfolio and the value of the portfolio at the given confidence level. Therefore the credit VaR is $85m - $ 60m = $25m. Choice 'b' is the correctanswer.
Note that economic capital and credit VaR are identical at a risk horizon of one year. Therefore if the question asks for economic capital, the answer would be the same.
[Again, an alternative way to look at this is to consider the explanation given in III.B.6.2.2: Credit Var = Q(L)
- EL where Q(L) is the total loss at a given confidence interval, and EL is the expected loss. In this case Q(L) -
$100-$60 = $40, and EL = $100-$85=$15. Therefore Credit VaR = $40-$15=$25.]
NEW QUESTION # 94
Which of the following was not a policy response introduced by Basel 2.5 in response to the global financial crisis:
- A. Comprehensive Risk Model (CRM)
- B. Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR)
- C. Stressed VaR (SVaR)
- D. Incremental Risk Charge (IRC)
Answer: B
Explanation:
Explanation
The CCAR is a supervisory mechanism adopted by the US Federal Reserve Bank to assess capital adequacy for bank holding companies it supervises. Itwas not a concept introduced by the international Basel framework.
The other three were indeed rules introduced by Basel 2.5, which was ultimately subsumed into Basel III.
Stressed VaR is just the standard 99%/10 day VaR, calculated with theassumption that relevant market factors are under stress.
The Incremental Risk Charge (IRC) is an estimate of default and migration risk of unsecuritized credit products in the trading book. (Though this may sound like a credit risk term, it relates to market risk - for example, a bond rated A being downgraded to BBB. In the old days, the banking book where loans to customers are held was the primary source of credit risk, but with OTC trading and complex products the trading book also now holds a good dealof credit risk. Both IRC and CRM account for these.) While IRC considers only non-securitized products, the CRM (Comprehensive Risk Model) considers securitized products such as tranches, CDOs, and correlation based instruments.
The IRC, SVaR and CRMcomplement standard VaR by covering risks that are not included in a standard VaR model. Their results are therefore added to the VaR for capital adequacy determination.
NEW QUESTION # 95
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